TMX POV - Themes from the Top: An Analysis of the 2025 TSX30®

A Market in Transition: Observing Trends in a Shifting Economy

In a landscape shaped by inflation, geopolitical shifts, and relentless technological advancement, the 2025 TSX30 offers a compelling look at where Canadian capital has been allocated. This year's ranking of the top-performing stocks based on their dividend-adjusted share price performance on Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), over the last three years, reveals that the Canadian markets rewarded companies that delivered certainty in uncertain times, scale in a digital age, and the infrastructure to keep both running.

Three dominant investment themes have emerged from this year's cohort:

• A Decisive Shift to Commodities: Particularly gold (and other hard assets) as a hedge against geopolitical and macroeconomic risks.

• A Focus on High-Impact Technology: Strong performance from companies involved in AI and digital transformation.

• The Resurgence of the "Real Economy": A renewed focus on industrials and infrastructure.

Commodities: A Reflection of Market Sentiment

The numbers are telling: over half of this year's TSX30 companies (17 of 30) are from the mining sector, with many of them gold producers. This performance aligns with the gold bull-run of 2023-25, which saw prices rise dramatically and ultimately soar above US$3000 per ounce in 2025 as investors sought safe havens as a reaction to inflation and geopolitical turmoil.

As a result, gold miners like Lundin Gold Inc. (+775%)*, New Gold Inc. (+394%), Kinross Gold Corporation (+394%), Alamos Gold Inc. (+310%), and Eldorado Gold Corporation (+238%) delivered strong investor returns. Beyond gold, base‑metal plays gained traction with investors: uranium producer Cameco Corporation (+277%) experienced a surge, as did copper and tungsten miners, Almonty Industries Inc. (+427%) and Taseko Mines Limited (+205%), potentially as some investors returned their focus to critical minerals.

Market Takeaway: Gold's 3-year run has been notable, but its underlying drivers, primarily, geopolitical instability, may be perceived by some as structural, not fleeting. If that is true, perhaps some investors may expect this mining trend to continue.

Technology's New Guard: Performance Beyond the Hype

While commodities led in the number of TSX30 rankings, technology firms on the list made some of the most dramatic individual gains. Those companies are largely tied to trends like AI, electrification, digital infrastructure, and crypto. Leading the pack is electronics manufacturer Celestica Inc. (+1,599%) with MDA Space Ltd. (+340%), Vitalhub Corp. (+310%) and Shopify Inc. (+290%) not far behind. Their surge may underscore booming demand for broad digital and AI-driven themes. Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. (+517%), a crypto/Blockchain financial firm, also appears on the TSX30, which may reflect investors' interest in chasing next‑wave tech opportunities.

Market Takeaway: Many of the tech firms featured on the 2025 TSX30 were focused on embedding AI and digital tools into their businesses. If enterprise adoption continues to accelerate, we may see a second wave of returns going to infrastructure and integration services companies.

Infrastructure and the Real Economy: A Renewed Focus

Meanwhile, traditional industrial and infrastructure firms saw big rallies too. Canada's infrastructure TSX30 champions are benefiting from three converging forces: energy transition, the need to modernize grids and transportation networks, and corporate re-shoring of supply chains.

Hammond Power Solutions Inc. (+738%), maker of electric transformers for power grids, is ranked third on the 2025 TSX30. Other top-ranked performers include TerraVest Industries Inc. (+661%), which capitalized on rising demand for energy equipment, while Bird Construction Inc. (+330%) and Bombardier Inc. (+514%) rode a wave of increased capital spending in construction and transportation. Companies straddling sectors, such as 5N Plus Inc. (+548%) and AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (formerly SNC-Lavalin) (+330%) reflect infrastructure-adjacent growth. The former supplies materials crucial to battery manufacturing and renewable energy technology, and the latter is an engineering and infrastructure firm that is focused on solutions that meet the rising energy consumption from new technologies such as AI and crypto-mining.

Many of these companies also demonstrate financial discipline and shareholder focus, for example through debt reduction (Bombardier), consistent earnings growth (Fairfax Financial, Hammond Power Solutions), a focus on free cash flow generation (TerraVest Industries), and share buybacks (Fairfax Financial). In short, this year's TSX30 ranking reflects that capital has flowed back into "real economy" plays: energy utilities, materials, transport and construction.

Market Takeaway: Global infrastructure spending has been on a multi-year upswing. The 2025 TSX30 list suggests that companies balancing strong backlog growth with disciplined cost management have been among the top performers.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 TSX30 provides a clear snapshot of the market trends that have defined the last three years. The ranking shows a significant representation of companies in tangible assets and cash-generating businesses, alongside those in high-growth technology sectors. A common thread among many of these top performers is a history of focusing on value and stable cash flows, with many offering dividends and boasting strong balance sheets. In fact, twenty of the ranked companies had positive cash flow throughout the three years, with 40% of this group also paying dividends to shareholders.

In short, the performance of Canada's top stocks suggests a market that has rewarded those that provided a hedge against unstable environments, contributed to the AI-powered transformation of our industries, or are rooted in our "real economy."

* Unless otherwise indicated, percentages in this article refer to dividend-adjusted share price performance over the three year period ending June 30, 2025.

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